UK election: What happens next for conservatives after crushing poll defeat?

Rishi Sunak is preparing to stay on as Conservative leader over the summer despite being on course to lose the general election.

Close allies say Mr Sunak believes it is his “duty” to oversee an orderly transition and they have urged him to remain to stave off a Tory civil war.

He is understood to be planning to stay on until the end of the leadership contest — likely to be in September or October.

But matters could be taken out of his hands depending on how the scale of the party’s predicted defeat is judged.

“He’ll want to do his duty because that’s what he’s always done, but obviously it depends on the scale of things and what the parliamentary party wants,” a senior Tory source told the Mail.

Abruptly quitting and forcing the party to choose an interim leader or triggering a hasty leadership race, is an unpopular prospect among many colleagues.

While it may be humiliating for Mr Sunak to endure Commons appearances from the opposition despatch box, allies fear the alternative — party infighting — would be worse.

“I think that Rishi’s got to hang about — he’s got a duty to the party to remain until a new leader is elected,” a former Cabinet minister told the Mail.

“The party is going to have a sort of nervous breakdown, that’s what will happen — just as it did in 1997 — and it will take a while to pull out of that.”

They added: “It’s not a happy position, and I think that the most important thing is that there shouldn’t be any hasty action to put a new leader in place.

“I think that it is essential that the voluntary party should have their full say. If they don’t, the party will melt down completely.”

Another senior Tory said: “I would be very, very surprised [if Mr Sunak stands down immediately] as it’s out of character.”

Even if the Tory leadership race does not officially begin immediately, Mr Sunak’s potential successors will begin setting out their stalls today.

Some hopefuls are forecast to lose their seats — including Penny Mordaunt and Grant Shapps.

In that case, the surviving contenders could include Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat and Victoria Atkins.

James Cleverly had been tipped, but has told friends he does not plan to put himself forward.

Earlier this week Ms Braverman urged the Conservative Party to “read the writing on the wall” and “prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition”.

Writing in The Daily Telegraph, the former home secretary blamed the situation on a fracture within the Conservative Party resulting from a rise in Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

Ms Braverman is popular among some on the Right of the party, along with Ms Badenoch, whose strong stance on sex-based rights has won her applause.

Responding to the exit poll last night, former Tory minister Nadine Dorries said “democracy survives” and that the Conservatives would remain as a “healthy opposition” if they have 131 seats.

She told Channel 4: “Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair — a lot of Labour MPs thought they were going to get a much bigger majority.”

But she said Reform’s predicted 13 seats suggested Mr Sunak had taken his eye off the Right, adding: “Boris Johnson and David Cameron had an eye to the Right, managed to make sure that Farage never got a purchase like he has now.”

Former Conservative chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng told Channel 4 it was “a bad result” but highlighted that it was not as terrible as some polls suggested.

He said the exit poll’s predicted 131 Conservative seats was enough to be the “basis of an opposition”, adding that it was “very surprising” that Reform were on course to win 13 seats.

Another reason party figures are urging Mr Sunak to stay on is uncertainty about how a leadership race would take place if he quit immediately.

Sir Graham Brady, who was chairman of the powerful 1922 Committee, announced he would stand down as an MP when the election was called.

Two other members of the Committee are also forecast to lose their seats, adding to the complications in starting a leadership race.

However 1922 sources suggested they could re-elect an executive within a day if required and install an acting party leader before triggering a leadership race.

A new leader could be elected for when Parliament returns in September or at the party conference later that month.

Some favour the earlier date so Labour has a tougher opposition when it pushes through its Budget that month, but others are arguing for the longest contest possible to test the candidates.

A senior minister told The Times: “[Mr Sunak] needs to stay on for a while for the good of the party. Not doing so would be an unfortunate end to a difficult time and would have an impact on his legacy.

“The reality is that in a few years, he may be seen as someone who went through a very difficult period and provided stability and there’s honour in that. But that would be a more difficult thing to argue in the event it was an immediate goodbye.”