Poll: Albanese more popular than Dutton but Labor struggling in Victoria, NSW

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese remains marginally more popular than opposition leader Peter Dutton, but Labor is losing support to the Coalition in the nation’s two most populous states, according to the latest polling.

A survey by Resolve Strategic for the Sydney Morning Herald shows that Mr Albanese has kept his personal edge over Mr Dutton by 38 to 36 per cent in NSW and 36 to 34 per cent in Victoria, and by wafer thin margin of 37 to 36 per cent nationally.

However, the findings echo other recent polling that reflects voter disillusionment with the Labor party in the crucial states of Victoria and NSW, with a further strong swing against it in Western Australia — raising the risk that the current Government could lose its majority.

The data revealed the Government’s primary votes had dropped from 33 to 29 per cent in both NSW and Victoria since the last election, with Victorian voters giving the Coalition its biggest boost in support since the 2022 election among the mainland states.

The trend in Victoria has raised the Coalition’s primary vote from 33 to 38 per cent, while NSW voters have increased their Coalition support from 37 to 38 per cent.

The results will mean Labor must stage a dramatic turnaround in next year’s poll, due by May 17, to win key electorates.

The Government will pitch its promise that the cost-of-living crisis will ease in a second term.

Frontbencher Matt Keogh said the Government was focused primarily on dealing with the cost-of-living pressures on Australian households, when asked whether he was concerned by the state of the polls.

“I know when I move around my community and when I’m out doorknocking and talking to people, they tell me that that bill relief has made a real difference to them, not just on their energy bills but it’s enabled them to be able to go that bit further with other things, especially at a time like now when it’s been the lead up at Christmas and they’ve had to buy presents for kids and everything else,” he told reporters in Perth.

“Those are the things we’re focused on, and we’ve been doing that in an economically responsible way.”

He pointed to the two budget surpluses, bringing inflation down from more than 6 per cent to below 3 per cent. And the tax cuts that went to every worker in July.

“I think everybody has been doing it extremely tough when it comes to being able to pay the bills, being able to pay mortgages and rent, making our pay packets go further under pressure – and we’ve really understood that as a government,” he said.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers told The Australian in an end-of-year interview: “A lot of Australians who’ll be pleased to see the back of 2024 can now be a bit more optimistic about the future.”

He acknowledged that 2024 “was a difficult one” but “Australians have made some welcome progress together in our economy and that means 2025 will be better as a consequence,” he said.

But another survey released last week by Newspoll showed that Labor remains vulnerable among disillusioned 35-49-year-old voters in NSW and Victoria, many of whom have mortgages and are unhappy with high interest rates and cost of living pressures.

The suburbs of New South Wales, Sydney and Melbourne will be “ground zero” in the 2025 Federal Election, Kos Samaras, director of strategy and analytics at the Redbridge Group, told The Nightly.

These were the areas where lower income constituents who were “feeling the pinch the most” lived in the greatest number, explained Mr Samaras.

“This is where people have basically been forced to buy homes which they probably can’t afford, that they were able to afford when interest rates were very low,” he said.

“And if they were to try to buy the same home now, with the current interest rate levels, they’d be unlikely to get the loan they need,” he added.

The latest Resolve Strategic poll also shows a dramatic fall in support for Labor in Western Australia, where a ten per cent swing was crucial to its last electoral victory in 2022.

The survey shows Labor down from 37 to 30 per cent since the election, and that the federal Coalition has increased its support in the state from 35 to 37 per cent.

Resolve director Jim Reed told the SMH that the latest results confirmed his view that Labor would lose its majority at the election unless there was a significant change in popular support in the months ahead.

“We’ve seen in recent years, here and abroad, that the axioms of politics no longer hold true,” he said.

“A lot of modern polling is about having the flexibility and ability to look at things that have never happened before.

“In 2022, we correctly anticipated that Labor would win with less than a third of the primary vote, that they would pick up seats in Western Australia, that the Greens would win seats in Brisbane, and that Liberal heartland would be taken by the teals.

“This time around we’ll be looking for things that go against the received wisdom, like the possibility of a first-term government being voted out, the Liberals winning seats in Victoria, the Greens losing seats and independents being denied a second term.”