China ‘biding its time’ to oust US out of Asia, says defence expert Professor Hugh White

The fight for dominance between the United States and China in the Asian region is in China’s court, with China “biding its time” and growing its military capacity to eventually outgrow the US, a leading expert has said.

Speaking following the release of the Lowy Institute’s 2024 Asian Power Index, which placed the US first, and China second, the Australian National University’s Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies, Hugh White, said he believed while America was currently the most powerful country in the region, stability in the area was dependent on China’s desire to maintain the status quo.

Appearing on a panel for the Lowy Institute in Canberra on Thursday night, Prof White also said stability in the region was dependent on China’s motivation to accept the United State’s influence and impact in the region, and that if it wanted to, it could push the US out.

“I think China has the capacity, and increasingly the capacity, to do so,” he said.

“China’s not hiding its power anymore, but it is biding its time. Its military capacity is increasing.

“You could say the further that goes, the less likelihood the US has of achieving of winning a war over a flashpoint like Taiwan, (and) the less likely the US is to fight, and the more likely it is the US backs off.”

This year’s Asian Power Index reported China, while behind the US, was gaining ground in its military capability.

The possibility of a second Trump administration also casts “doubts over US reliability and predictability” he said..

However the report also noted China’s power was “plateauing at a level below that of the US,” largely due to its dipping economic output which it has struggled to recover since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Rounding out the top five, Australia was ranked fifth most powerful, coming in behind India and Japan.

Sharing his predictions, Prof White said that while the US has declared China to be the “biggest strategic challenge has faced since the Cold War,” it’s done “nothing material to enhance its military posture”.

“There’s no Asian NATO and that’s actually what they need if they really want to preserve primacy,” he said.

“They need to get these countries (Japan, South Korea and the Philippines) to really commit to acting cohesively, (and) strategically and they haven’t done that.

“I think future historians will say, actually, that wasn’t very good at all … We won’t recognise it until it’s all over, that that’s what we’re watching.”

However, Lowy Institute director of research Hervé Lemahieu said China’s rising power also increases the importance of the US.

“You could argue that actually the US is more important to its allies today than it was five or 10 years ago,” she said.

He pointed to the growing alliances with the US, and said the demand was coming from allies, citing Australia’s AUKUS deal and alliances with the Philippines.

Mr Lemahieu said the long-serving military relationships with the US, would aid stability, even in the advent of a second Trump presidency.

“Even Trump doesn’t have the consistency of effort required to undertake that. So I think it’s actually much more likely the status quo holds,” he said.

“Demand for the US is growing, suspicion of China is growing among many, and for most, I think they would want a future in which both the US and China play some form of role.”

In recent weeks, the China and US rivalry emerged with US Present Joe Biden caught in a hot mic moment, telling Anthony Albanese, and the leaders of India, and Japan that China was continuing to “behave aggressively”.

Mr Biden added that he believed China was “testing us all across the region” noting conflict across the South China Sea, the East China Sea, South China, South Asia and the Taiwan Straits.

The comments come as the Prime Minister is currently in Laos’ capital Vientiane for the ASEAN-Australian Summit, where he met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Thursday.

While talks resulted a deal with China to lift its import ban on Australian lobsters, the last major trade sanction following tensions from the Covid-19 pandemic, Mr Albanese noted that regional and international security issues still remained.

This included concerns on “destabilising actions in the South China Sea”.

“So much international trade goes through the South China Sea, and we need to have military to military engagement and co-operation and dialogue to avoid any misadventure,” he said, flagging it as a key speaking point in talks with Mr Li.