Nationals line up for Vasse

A political analyst has tipped the Liberal Party to retain Vasse in the upcoming by-election despite a shifting political landscape with Labor exiting the race and the WA Nationals stepping up.

WA Labor announced it would not contest the by-election sparked by Troy Buswell’s resignation, the first time it has sat out an election in 47 years.

WA Nationals leader Terry Redman told the weekend’s State party conference there was a polling shift happening in WA and the Nationals were “in with a shake”.

City of Busselton deputy mayor Grant Henley and councillor John McCallum confirmed they were considering nominating for the Nationals’ pre-selection.

Mr Henley joined the Liberal Party last week, but a 30-day pre-selection requirement meant he could not be considered. He said there was an insufficient balance of power to make running as an independent worthwhile.

Mr McCallum said he didn’t believe Vasse was a “rusted on” Liberal seat. “The Nationals have demonstrated their ability to bring significant services to the bush, ” he said.

Election analyst William Bowe from the University of Western Australia’s political science department said Labor’s opt-out was likely to have been equally financially and strategically motivated.

“They don’t have any money. If they were flush they might dip their toe in but … they had to campaign in the Senate election in April. Governments don’t fare well in mid-term elections, but Labor would never win. The best they could get is a couple of days’ worth of bad headlines for the Government.” Mr Bowe said.

“It would be better for them if they let the Nationals become the single realistic non-Liberal contender, have less big players in the field and avoid leakage on preferences.”

Mr Bowe said it didn’t do a party any favours to sit out an election. “It’s a factor they need to consider because it makes it look as though they don’t have any interest in the electorate. But parties increasingly don’t contest by elections, ” he said.

Mr Bowe said affluent Vasse wasn’t natural Nationals territory and the Liberals would likely retain the seat.

“Back in 2001 the Nationals nearly won the seat at the State Election. There’s a bit of dairy farming down there but... it’s a Liberal area and that’s only increased since 2001, ” he said.

“The Nationals are not going to get any of the regional strugglers they were picking up with Royalties for Regions.”

WA Labor Leader Mark McGowan said Labor would marshal their resources for the 2017 State Election and watch the Liberal and National parties “tear each other up”.

"While I would have anticipated a healthy swing to Labor... it was still highly unlikely we could win given the Liberals’ large margin in Vasse, ” Mr McGowan said.

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