How a Trump presidency could affect Aussie produce

Australia’s red meat and wine sectors could cop the most heat from Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports.

Trump campaigned for the US presidency on introducing tariffs of between 10 to 20 per cent on products from other countries, along with 60 per cent on goods from China.

Australia’s red meat and wine sectors were the most exposed to the US market, according to Rural Banks’ agricultural outlook for the first half of 2025, released on Tuesday morning.

“There remains no timeline set for implementation, with tariffs more likely to come into effect in the second half of 2025 which will likely stave off volatility until later in the year,” it said.

“Australia gaining an exemption to these tariffs will be a key focus in diplomatic and trade circles in coming months.”

Steady commodity prices and a lower Australian dollar were positive factors for trade, providing some stability against a backdrop of other geopolitical tensions.

“But while trade conditions are expected to remain generally favourable, volatility across markets more broadly remains a concern,” the bank’s industry affairs senior manager Neil Burgess said.

Cattle, sheep, dairy, cropping and horticulture production were all strong, while the wool industry would remain in a holding pattern until economic conditions could improve consumer spending.

Producers were anticipating a generally favourable rainfall outlook in the first half of the year, though falls in drought-affected areas were expected to sit in a “typical” range.

In the horticulture sector, backpacker numbers were at record levels, though recruiting workers remained a concern for about a third of growers, the outlook said.

Table grapes were expected to be a star export at a predicted volume of 135,000 tonnes - the third highest on record - with growers recently granted more access to the Japanese market.

Overall, the outlook was optimistic, Mr Burgess said.

“The combination of stronger than expected production estimates, relatively steady commodity prices and global economic growth are providing a more positive outlook for Australian agriculture over the next six months.”